Comedy vs Musical: Box Office Showdown - Weekend Preview

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This weekend's comedy and musical showdown features 'I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry,' set for a strong $35 million opening despite negative reviews.

This weekend promises an intriguing clash between a comedy and a musical, bringing us back to the traditional Friday through Sunday release schedule. Despite receiving overwhelmingly negative reviews and merely 14% positive feedback on Rotten Tomatoes, "I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry" is expected to perform well financially. Industry experts anticipate a strong opening of over $35 million from 3,495 theaters. Universal Pictures, however, seems to be managing expectations, suggesting they would be content with a $30 million debut.


Adam Sandler's comedic ventures typically see robust openings, even when the humor is less than stellar. This film, which lightly parodies gay culture and showcases Jessica Biel's physical appeal, is likely to draw significant crowds despite its mixed reception. The studio went to great lengths to ensure the script did not offend, consulting numerous LGBTQ+ organizations.


In contrast, New Line Cinema's "Hairspray," a well-received musical, is projected to open with around $20 million from 3,121 theaters. This is somewhat surprising given the extensive marketing campaign, including early television advertisements. The lower-than-expected forecast might be due to John Travolta's portrayal of Edna, which some find off-putting. Additionally, the competition between "Hairspray" and "Chuck and Larry" could cannibalize each other's audience, as one studio executive noted.


Some insiders suggest that "Hairspray" could potentially reach closer to $30 million, while "Chuck and Larry" might exceed $40 million. However, both films face stiff competition from blockbuster titles such as "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix," "Transformers," and "Ratatouille." Furthermore, "Hairspray" is sandwiched between the releases of "Harry Potter" and the upcoming "The Simpsons Movie," which could further impact its box office performance.


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